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NIFTY: 'Classic' Market TopsHi In this article I will discuss how classic market tops develop and in this background I will try to analyze whether our market meets the conditions necessary for it to be declared at its top. Acceleration As we can see that market was behaving nicely in the primary channel (white). Suddenly it changed its behavior and started to accelerate in a new channel (pink). It reflects greed where everybody wants to buy, irrespective of the market valuations. Overbought This is a typical condition where markets jump out of the supply line of the trend channel. The tendency after such an event is to get back into the channel. A we can see at A, B and C in the chart when it jumped out of primary channel. Wide range bars Another common observation at market tops. The volatility increases and the range of the bars, compared to previous so many bars, suddenly widens. We can clearly observe the recent formation of such wide range bars in our market. Distribution at the top A very powerful and rare observation at the higher time frame charts (monthly), but very common on lower time frames. We generally observe sharp reactions from the top. Markets then rally as if everything was normal. It then peek-a-boo above the previous highs and tumbles down. It may rally again to retest the highs but with no buying interest at the top level. It means that the market makers are in distribution mode. They support the market at certain psychological levels and begin to distribute to the heard again near the top. When the distribution is complete, they stop supporting the market and lock everybody at the top. Shortening of the thrust and Upthrust The market makes new highs but without any further progress. And this progress keep on diminishing at every attempt to make new highs. Clearly visible at A, B and C. Also at C there is an upthrust (can't discuss here) with next bar down which confirms the rejection. Unfortunately I dun have the Volume on the index charts so can't do VSA, otherwise the scenarios would have been logically more clear. With all this in the background, I have reached to the conclusion that our market is forming a top. A top which will be remembered for a couple of years. One can wait for a lower low formation to confirm but that condition is sufficient for lower time frames. Also It is possible that market bounces sharply from 10600 zone or 10000 zone but those rallies should be played for quick gains. Selling the weakness on such rallies will make us big money. The levels like 9500-9000 may be seen in the coming months. But have patience, this is gonna take some time. I hope it makes sense for everyone and help in your future decisions. Trade Safe, Stay Healthy. JJ
NSE:NIFTY
by Bravetotrade
5
Nifty Hourly chart Ranges GaloreThis is a hellish market to trade for directional index traders since past few weeks now. Views and opinions have to be revised frequently as Nifty has been forming one range after the another. However all this dull activity whether accumulation or consolidation is building cause for some good trend to develop in the market, just need to analyze price action and participate in those phases, taking help of some additional tools like OI analysis, keeping tab on news flow and global economic situation etc. Have marked some key levels which are going to be important in the days to come. Always be on the lookout for wide range bars with high volumes to gather further clues about the market direction. Also track Nifty wrt 50 MA and 200 MA. Hope we see a trend develop soon!
NSE:NIFTY1!Long
by thelastbull
Bajaj Finance: Nice Breakout, Waiting For Follow ThroughBajaj Finance has been one of the relative outperformers in comparison to the Nifty 50 Index. After a period of consolidation, the price registered a breakout yesterday with huge trading volume. I am watching this stock with interest and looking for clues as to the nature of this breakout. One possibility is that the breakout is an "upthrust" and price could then quickly drift back into the trading range. The other possibility is a genuine breakout and stock flying away to further heights. IF the second scenario plays out, the price should typically drift lower with narrow range bars and thin volume and then register another big green wide ranged bar. Lets wait and watch which scenario plays out.
NSE:BAJFINANCE
by techtrail
2
LIC Housing Finance Ltd (LICHSGFIN) Chart Analysis LIC Housing Finance Ltd (LICHSGFIN) Chart Analysis (as of September 6, 2024) 1. Price Movement: Current Price: ₹694.60. Recent Correction: The stock fell by -21.06% or ₹170.35, from its previous high, showing a significant pullback. Potential Upside: A recovery pattern is observed, with a potential price increase of ₹260.95 or 36.27%, as indicated by the blue box. If this upward trend holds, the stock could reach around ₹955. 2. Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD): Current CVD: Negative at -213.054K, indicating higher selling pressure than buying. This could mean some market participants are still cautious. CVD Trend: There are periods of spikes in volume, hinting at institutional involvement. However, the overall bearish divergence suggests the recovery may face some hurdles unless buying pressure increases. 3. Price Action: The stock seems to have bounced from its lows and is attempting to climb back. The wide-range bars from the correction show volatility, but current movement is stable. There is a potential for a breakout if volume and momentum increase. Watch for price action to stay above the ₹700 level, which would confirm bullish momentum. Fundamental Analysis of LIC Housing Finance Ltd: 1. Business Overview: LIC Housing Finance is a major player in the housing finance sector, primarily engaged in offering loans for residential property purchases. It benefits from LIC’s brand reputation, wide reach, and access to a broad customer base. 2. Revenue and Profitability: The company has shown consistent revenue growth due to increased demand for housing finance, driven by government incentives like affordable housing schemes. Profit margins have slightly compressed due to rising interest rates, but they remain stable because of its large asset base and low cost of funds (being linked to LIC). 3. Macroeconomic Factors: The interest rate environment plays a crucial role in housing finance. Rising interest rates in 2023 may have impacted borrowing costs and demand, contributing to the recent stock correction. As inflation stabilizes and the economy grows, LIC Housing Finance could benefit from higher demand for home loans and a rebound in real estate activity. 4. Risk Factors: Interest Rate Sensitivity: Higher rates can dampen demand for housing loans, which could limit revenue growth. Asset Quality: Rising interest rates might cause stress in loan repayments, leading to a potential increase in Non-Performing Assets (NPAs). 5. Growth Opportunities: Affordable Housing Initiatives: Government initiatives and policies promoting affordable housing create a favorable environment for growth. Digital Transformation: LIC Housing Finance is improving its digital presence, which will help lower operational costs and improve customer acquisition. Conclusion: Technical Outlook: The stock is showing early signs of recovery after a sharp correction, with potential for a further rise of 36.27%. However, CVD indicates caution due to selling pressure. Fundamental Outlook: LIC Housing Finance has a strong market position and is poised for long-term growth due to its connection with the LIC brand and favorable housing finance trends, though macroeconomic conditions (interest rates) could pose challenges. For investment purposes, it’s crucial to monitor interest rate changes and the company's ability to manage loan growth and asset quality.
NSE:LICHSGFINLong
by shivtoshiva2022
NIFTY :ABCD in processBearish ABCD Pattern Rules Find AB Point A is a significant low Point B is a significant high In the move from A up to B there can be no lows below point A, and no highs above point B If AB, then find BC Point C must be higher than point A In the move from B down to C there can be no highs above point B, and no lows below point C Point C will ideally be 61.8% or 78.6% of AB In strongly trending markets, BC may only be 38.2% or 50% of AB If BC, then draw CD Point D must be higher than point B In the move from C up to D there can be no lows below point C, and no highs above point D Determine where D may complete (price) CD may equal AB in price CD may be 127.2% or 161.8% of AB in price CD may be 127.2% or 161.8% of BC in price Determine when point D may complete (time) for additional confirmation CD may equal AB in time CD may be 61.8% or 78.6% time of AB CD may be 127.2% or 161.8% time of AB Look for fib, pattern, trend convergence Watch for price gaps and/or wide-ranging bars/candles in the CD leg, especially as market approaches point D Traders may interpret these as signs of a potential strongly trending market and expect to see 127.2% or 161.8% price extensions
NSE:NIFTY
by stocksupervison
Pain is Not over Yet ( Possible Expanding Ending diagonal)This scrip is really in bad shape , and when you check it in Candlestick or Line chart , You will die but never understand whats the hack is happening , but when you turn the same to Ranko or Fixed Range Bars , You might be able to get some idea , Now there was lots of talk , Many Point & F chart Masters ware speculating this will likely turn up side , but the Truth is far away If there is any pull back on daily , I am really not looking to Go long , I will sell on every opportunity on bearish impulse , but never try to buy this , Friday close is some dramatic , so expect a sharp pull back in it and might consolidate before making another drop Look for short sell set up and take trade in futures Pattern : I am looking this as an Possible Expanding ending diagonal , its my personal view , No argument with any one view
NSE:SUNPHARMA
by I-Fund-Trader
2
EURUSD - Gartley after GartleyEURUSD has been trading in a sideways market for the past 2 months since it got supported at 1.15. Straight to the point, a Gartley pattern is about to complete its point D near the bottom of the sideways market. And coincidently just before this current Gartley is forming, another Gartley has completed. Well, I don't really know what that means, but seems like overlapping patterns does boost confidence for a trade I guess. There are 2 possible levels to go long which also means Gartley point D is most likely to be completed. The first Buy Zone is at 127.2% of BC, a perfect AB=CD formation. But on a closer look, there were 2 wide range bars right after BC leg was completed, which could cause CD leg to extend further, and thus the consideration to long at 161.8% of BC.
Long
by AlgoVenture